Demand Model
Annual inputs remain editable. NB, DT and Mobile use 22% / 23% / 30% / 25% quarterly seasonality; Server uses a linear quarterly ramp.
Supply Model
HBM Outlook
Supplier-level wafer allocation, not a year-level assumption
2026 Memory supply is converted to effective output: standard DRAM = 3,600GB per wafer and HBM = 1,600GB per wafer. 2027–2028 remain unadjusted until an approved mix update.
Chart 1
Indexed demand vs supply
Both series are indexed to 1Q26 = 100. Memory supply reflects approved 2026 HBM-adjusted effective output.
Chart 2
Relative sufficiency pressure
Supply index minus demand index. A positive result means supply is growing faster than demand from the same 1Q26 anchor.
Chart 3
Supplier wafer output mix
Supplier scope follows the active Memory or Storage model.
Chart 4
Quarterly demand by content
Quarterly demand consumption by the four approved end-market categories.
Daily Pulse
What changed outside the model?
Public, attributable industry information is classified for review. It is not an input to the sufficiency calculation.
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Teams Deal Log
Opportunity buy and reserve history
Commercial deal signals from CSBU Memory PUR Deals. This section is separate from the sufficiency model and industry intelligence; it tracks available buys, validation gates, and reserve actions over time.
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Approved Baseline
Publish a bi-monthly workbook
Use the original Excel sheet structure. Publishing locally creates an auditable browser archive and records the change note. For the shared OneDrive archive, run the included publisher script after approval.
Change Summary
Current baseline vs prior
Upload an approved workbook to compare it with the active baseline.
Baseline Archive
Approved review history
Browser history is local to this device. The `scripts/publish-baseline.ps1` utility creates the shared OneDrive archive for the team package.